388
FXUS62 KCAE 210545
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AS NOTED
BY THE DIFFERENCES IN WIND DIRECTION AND DEW POINTS. EAST OF THE
FRONT, WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WINDS WEST
OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY MORE WESTERLY. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN THE EAST TO 40S IN THE WEST. THE DEW POINTS ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THEM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IS ABLE TO HELP PUSH THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FRONT
HANGING OUT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LEAD TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR
MORE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO.
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INSTABILITY CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER CSRA. SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A STRONGER STORM, BUT IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY GETS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
BEGIN THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MODERATELY HIGH THAT LOWS
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AROUND OVERNIGHT, BUT HEAVIER
RAIN WITH MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH
12Z, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP WITH CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. AFTER 12Z, MORE PERSISTENT AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AT
AGS-DNL-OGB, WITH A MIX OF ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 14-18Z WHICH IS
ALSO WHEN TSRA IS MOST LIKELY, AGAIN AT DNL-AGS-OGB; TEMPO
INCLUDED THERE, WITH PROB30 GROUP INCLUDED AT CAE-CUB. SHOWERS
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE
LOWERING CIGS TO IFR-LIFR AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
2200Z AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE IN. NO
NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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