231
FXUS62 KCAE 210927
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
427 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES UPDATED. THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
- 2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
MORNING AND WILL WAIVER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THEN BACK TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RISES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM MID- DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. CAMS SUGGEST THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 50 TO 75 PERCENT
OF HREF AND NBM MEMBERS SHOWING ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN OR HIGHER
IN THIS AREA.
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE WEAK TO MODERATE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 1 KM. ALTHOUGH MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE QUICKER TO
PUSH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE KEPT IT
FURTHER NORTH. THIS INCREASES CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM
MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FA
INCLUDING BURKE, BARNWELL, AND BAMBERG COUNTIES. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH 0 TO 1 KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS AND ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG THE FRONT WE
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING, WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WE CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON MONDAY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE LOW 20S POSSIBLE
FOR THE LATTER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES. GIVEN
THE WARM UP OVER RECENT DAYS, ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS
BLOSSOMED MAY BE HARMED IF UNPROTECTED.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AROUND OVERNIGHT, BUT HEAVIER
RAIN WITH MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH
12Z, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP WITH CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. AFTER 12Z, MORE PERSISTENT AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AT
AGS-DNL-OGB, WITH A MIX OF ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 14-18Z WHICH IS
ALSO WHEN TSRA IS MOST LIKELY, AGAIN AT DNL-AGS-OGB; TEMPO
INCLUDED THERE, WITH PROB30 GROUP INCLUDED AT CAE-CUB. SHOWERS
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE
LOWERING CIGS TO IFR-LIFR AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
2200Z AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE IN. NO
NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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