152
FXUS62 KCAE 211139
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS. KEY MESSAGES UPDATED. THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
SOUTHERN CSRA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
- 2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
MORNING AND WILL WAIVER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THEN BACK TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RISES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM MID- DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. CAMS SUGGEST THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 50 TO 75 PERCENT
OF HREF AND NBM MEMBERS SHOWING ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN OR HIGHER
IN THIS AREA.
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE WEAK TO MODERATE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 1 KM. ALTHOUGH MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE QUICKER TO
PUSH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE KEPT IT
FURTHER NORTH. THIS INCREASES CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM
MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FA
INCLUDING BURKE, BARNWELL, AND BAMBERG COUNTIES. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH 0 TO 1 KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS AND ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG THE FRONT WE
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING, WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WE CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON MONDAY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE LOW 20S POSSIBLE
FOR THE LATTER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES. GIVEN
THE WARM UP OVER RECENT DAYS, ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS
BLOSSOMED MAY BE HARMED IF UNPROTECTED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS, HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDER WITH MVFR-
IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. STARTING
AROUND 12Z, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP WITH
CIGS AND VSBY GENERALLY MVFR-IFR. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF -TSRA TO CAE AND CUB. AFTER 14Z,
MORE PERSISTENT AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT AGS- DNL- OGB, WITH A MIX OF
ASSOCIATED LIFR-IFR-MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15-19Z WHICH IS ALSO WHEN TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY, AGAIN AT DNL-AGS- OGB; TEMPO INCLUDED THERE, WITH
PROB30 GROUP INCLUDED AT CAE- CUB GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTH. SHOWERS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP A
BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE LOWERING CIGS TO IFR-
LIFR MOVES IN AFTER 2200Z AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE IN. NO
NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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