632
FXUS62 KCAE 211729
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED MESOANALYSIS FOR CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. LOW SEVERE THREAT IN THE
LOWER CSRA.
- 2) COLD FRONT LEADS TO STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. LOW SEVERE THREAT IN THE
LOWER CSRA.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH, WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 12PM
SHOWING THE FRONT IN A LINE ALONG BURKE, BARNWELL AND BAMBERG
COUNTIES. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST SOUTH OF THIS
LINE (AND NEAR ZERO ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA). WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR, GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER AND
SUFFICIENT TURNING IN HODOGRAPHS, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN
APPROACHING LINE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH
MACON CURRENTLY. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS UPSTREAM, THIS
LINE IS ENTERING A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE THREE COUNTIES FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A
TORNADO.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ARE RESTRENGTHENING, MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM AN UPPER SHORTWAVE.
LIGHTNINGCAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN
THE FIRST PARAGRAPH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED, LIMITING ANY
SEVERE RISK. HREF INDICATES DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AS
RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD FRONT LEADS TO STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY WINDS INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD ADVECTION
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
NAEFS MEAN INDICATES 850MB WINDS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY (GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN BLENDED GUIDANCE). A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY AFTER 1 PM SUNDAY (OVER 24 HOURS AWAY).
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
MASS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED
SPREAD IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A
RESULT INDICATES A TIGHT SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN YET, WITH THE RECENT WARMUP, ANY PLANTS
THAT HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM AND ARE SENSITIVE WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE PROTECTED EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS, HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDER WITH MVFR-
IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. STARTING
AROUND 12Z, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP WITH
CIGS AND VSBY GENERALLY MVFR-IFR. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF -TSRA TO CAE AND CUB. AFTER 14Z,
MORE PERSISTENT AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT AGS- DNL- OGB, WITH A MIX OF
ASSOCIATED LIFR-IFR-MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15-19Z WHICH IS ALSO WHEN TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY, AGAIN AT DNL-AGS- OGB; TEMPO INCLUDED THERE, WITH
PROB30 GROUP INCLUDED AT CAE- CUB GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTH. SHOWERS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP A
BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE LOWERING CIGS TO IFR-
LIFR MOVES IN AFTER 2200Z AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE IN. NO
NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
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