749
FXUS62 KCAE 212341
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- 2) COLD FRONT LEADS TO STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA HAS
MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT,
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS IT DOES, SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOVE OUT OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD FRONT LEADS TO STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY WINDS INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD ADVECTION
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
NAEFS MEAN INDICATES 850MB WINDS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY (GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN BLENDED GUIDANCE). A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY AFTER 1 PM SUNDAY (OVER 24 HOURS AWAY).
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
MASS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED
SPREAD IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A
RESULT INDICATES A TIGHT SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN YET, WITH THE RECENT WARMUP, ANY PLANTS
THAT HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM AND ARE SENSITIVE WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE PROTECTED EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANY RESIDUAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY
MVFR-IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT; PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
THE BULK OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 06-10Z, BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BEGINS TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT, EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER DAWN, PARTICULARLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS MIXING. AS
SUCH, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY
AROUND 11-12Z OR SO, TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. STRONGER
WINDS, 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. NO
NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29/96
AVIATION...10
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