987
FXUS62 KCAE 220540
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- 2) COLD FRONT LEADS TO STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA HAS
MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT,
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS IT DOES, SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOVE OUT OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD FRONT LEADS TO STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY WINDS INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD ADVECTION
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
NAEFS MEAN INDICATES 850MB WINDS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY (GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN BLENDED GUIDANCE). A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY AFTER 1 PM SUNDAY (OVER 24 HOURS AWAY).
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
MASS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED
SPREAD IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A
RESULT INDICATES A TIGHT SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN YET, WITH THE RECENT WARMUP, ANY PLANTS
THAT HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM AND ARE SENSITIVE WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE PROTECTED EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF MVFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS, LOW CIGS, AND
REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY. GENERALLY THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH AGS-DNL-OGB
THROUGH ~12Z, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY; CAE
AND CUB ARE GENERALLY STAYING MVFR-VFR, JUST NORTH OF THESE
SHOWERS. AFTER 12Z, THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND STEADILY
START TO CLEAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE MAIN STORY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
OVER 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS STILL EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. NO NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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