654
FXUS62 KCAE 220847
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
347 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
- 2) SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE
AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING CLEARING OUT THE REMAINING FEW
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPSTREAM
SITES ALREADY SHOWING GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. AS THE SURFACE
LOW UNDERGOES RAPID CYCLOGENISIS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEEP MIXING SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MEDIAN HREF WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 MPH FROM
AROUND NOON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40
MPH AT TIMES. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES, A SWATH OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM BURKE
COUNTY EASTWARD TO ORANGEBURG COUNTY. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH UPROOTED TREES IN SATURATED SOILS EVEN IF
WIND GUSTS DON'T QUITE REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ON
AREA LAKES INTO THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 20S EXPECTED. WITH THE
RECENT WARMUP, ANY PLANTS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM AND ARE
COLD SENSITIVE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE PROTECTED. LESS CERTAINTY
IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 30
DEGREES OR IN THE UPPER 20S.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF MVFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS, LOW CIGS, AND
REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY. GENERALLY THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH AGS-DNL-OGB
THROUGH ~12Z, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY; CAE
AND CUB ARE GENERALLY STAYING MVFR-VFR, JUST NORTH OF THESE
SHOWERS. AFTER 12Z, THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND STEADILY
START TO CLEAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE MAIN STORY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
OVER 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS STILL EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. NO NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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