548
FXUS62 KCAE 221750
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONGEST GUSTS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CSRA
BUT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
UNTIL 10 PM. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
- 2) MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS
LED TO A ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIRES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR 850MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH THE
AXIS OF THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE 850MB LOW DEEPENS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN STRONGEST IN THE
CSRA WITH GENERALLY GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH OBSERVED. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO THE STRONGER JET AND
INCREASED MIXING WITH CLEAR SKIES. AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AND THE JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD, EXPECT
INCREASING GUSTS IN THE MIDLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL 10PM. WHILE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT
BE REACHED AFTER THEN, GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ON AREA
LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS OF LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING
BECOMING WEAKER. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (GREATER
THAN 80 PERCENT) THAT WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY COLD PRODUCTS WITH THIS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COLDER, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER
LEADING TO SIMILAR WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET THEN SOME
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING BREEZY.
WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND EVEN
LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF TERMINALS WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE. NO
NOTABLE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
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