608
FXUS62 KCAE 222327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
- 2) MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS
LED TO A ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIRES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR 850MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH THE
AXIS OF THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE 850MB LOW DEEPENS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN STRONGEST IN THE
CSRA WITH GENERALLY GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH OBSERVED. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO THE STRONGER JET AND
INCREASED MIXING WITH CLEAR SKIES. AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AND THE JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD, EXPECT
INCREASING GUSTS IN THE MIDLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL 10PM. WHILE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT
BE REACHED AFTER THEN, GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ON AREA
LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS OF LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING
BECOMING WEAKER. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (GREATER
THAN 80 PERCENT) THAT WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY COLD PRODUCTS WITH THIS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COLDER, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER
LEADING TO SIMILAR WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE CONTINUING THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE COMING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TONIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEAKEN A BIT MORE TO
BETWEEN 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS AS MIXING LIKELY
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. AFTER 14-16Z ON MONDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK BACK UP NEAR 15-18 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 23-26 KTS
BUILDING BACK IN. THESE WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY
BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING
IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page