250
FXUS62 KCAE 230147
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
847 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
- 2) MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WINDSPEEDS DID TOP 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW MOVING AWAY AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXING SOME, WINDSPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE WIND ADVISORY
WAS CANCELED EARLY. WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN EVEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNLIKELY TO
FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 OR 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS OF LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING
BECOMING WEAKER. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (GREATER
THAN 80 PERCENT) THAT WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY COLD PRODUCTS WITH THIS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COLDER, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER
LEADING TO SIMILAR WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE CONTINUING THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE COMING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TONIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEAKEN A BIT MORE TO
BETWEEN 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS AS MIXING LIKELY
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. AFTER 14-16Z ON MONDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK BACK UP NEAR 15-18 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 23-26 KTS
BUILDING BACK IN. THESE WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY
BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING
IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/96
AVIATION...17
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