882
FXUS62 KCAE 230542
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
- 2) MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WINDSPEEDS DID TOP 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW MOVING AWAY AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXING SOME, WINDSPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE WIND ADVISORY
WAS CANCELED EARLY. WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN EVEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNLIKELY TO
FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 OR 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS OF LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING
BECOMING WEAKER. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (GREATER
THAN 80 PERCENT) THAT WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY COLD PRODUCTS WITH THIS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COLDER, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER
LEADING TO SIMILAR WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
MONDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS,
SUSTAINED 10-12 KNOTS WITH 16-20 KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STEADILY STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAT AND MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED AROUND 25-30 KNOTS,
TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY
BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING
IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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