521
FXUS62 KCAE 230821
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
321 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH COLD, DRY AIR SETTLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT QUITE BE CALM TONIGHT, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR
MOST AREAS AND LOWER 20S IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS. ANY COLD-SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED AFTER
LAST WEEK'S WARM UP.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEK. AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE PWAT VALUES RAMP UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE
WEEK, TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
MONDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS,
SUSTAINED 10-12 KNOTS WITH 16-20 KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STEADILY STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAT AND MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED AROUND 25-30 KNOTS,
TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY
BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING
IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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