567
FXUS62 KCAE 031128
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGING WILL LEAD TO
RISING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE
TO ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE WITH MODELS CONSISTENT IN STRONG
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EC EFI HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ABOVE 0.8 FOR MAX TEMPERATURES INDICATING
PERSISTENT UNUSUALLY WARM PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR NBM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AS WELL WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALTHOUGH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT, WHICH MODELS INDICATE LIKELY WON'T BE
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH LREF PWAT PROBS GREATER THAN AN
INCH AROUND 60-70%, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED STORM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH POPS
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR, OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS. IFR
CEILINGS SHOWN DOWN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL
PLAINS OF SC/GA. GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH ON KEEPING LOW END
MVFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF UPPER END IFR POSSIBLE, THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z, THEN INDICATIONS THAT CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
INTO UPPER END MVFR AND BEGIN TO BREAK OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MIXING. VFR SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
VISIBILITIES START TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR AS FOG BEGINS TO FORM
AROUND 09Z. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS
OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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