948
FXUS62 KCAE 031734
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1234 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO
THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING,
THOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES TONIGHT
REMAIN WEAK WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM IN MOST
LOCATIONS. SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY DECOUPLES WHERE
THE LATEST REFS PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2
MILE ARE NOW BETWEEN 40-60%, HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE DETERMINISTIC HRRR AND NBM ALSO ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHOWING A LARGE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2 MILE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS. THERE COULD BE PATCHY DENSE FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20
AS WELL, THUS THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ASSESSED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ACROSS ENSEMBLE OR
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS SOLID AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND 1-1.5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE NEARING 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS,
ALONG WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH UP TO 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ENTER THE
PREVAILING FLOW. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT IQR RANGES SHOW THEY LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM AS PWAT'S REACH ABOVE 1". THIS TREND
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS, BRINGING
INCREASING POP'S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY THE
EARLY WEEK, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDED ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CLEARING IS
BEING NOTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING CEILINGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE TERMINALS WILL SEE THE IMPROVEMENT,
THOUGH. ALL 5 TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY ABOUT 21Z, POTENTIALLY
SOONER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT. THE CALM WINDS COMBINED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT
BRINGS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 SM OR LESS AT TIMES
AROUND DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS
OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASED SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...29
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