362
FXUS62 KCAE 040029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING
INTO THE REGION FROM OVER THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. DESPITE THE
CIRRUS HAMPERING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT WE STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FAVOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS HINDERED BY
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LOWCOUNTRY SPREADING INTO THE MIDLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ACROSS ENSEMBLE OR
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS SOLID AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND 1-1.5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE NEARING 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS,
ALONG WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH UP TO 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ENTER THE
PREVAILING FLOW. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT IQR RANGES SHOW THEY LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM AS PWAT'S REACH ABOVE 1". THIS TREND
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS, BRINGING
INCREASING POP'S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY THE
EARLY WEEK, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDED ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY....
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS MAY PASS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON. CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG REMAINS MODERATE
FOR ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK. THE SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID-MORNING, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page