770
FXUS62 KCAE 040601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT REMAINS PATCHY.
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN PATCHY TO THIS POINT. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIRES GUIDANCE
INDICATING IT WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO BECOME DENSE WITH
VISIBILITIES A QUARTER MILE OR LESS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY FAVOR MORE STRATUS VERSUS FOG.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
REINFORCING AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUING TO
FAVOR 500MB HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ANOMALOUS WARMTH PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THE
LIMITED SPREAD OF BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. POPS WILL BE LIMITED
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY, GENERALLY FAVORING DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH HIGH MOISTURE WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES GREATER
THAN 80% OF PWATS RISING TO ABOVE AN INCH. ENSEMBLE MEANS
GENERALLY FAVOR A BIT OF FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW AREAS OF BROKEN MVFR STRATUS FORMING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE OF SC DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CAE/CUB WITH MVFR CEILINGS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED.
MEANWHILE, AGS/DNL/OGB WILL HAVE MVFR IMPACTS DUE TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BECOMING POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z. AFTER 09Z, ALL SITES
FORECAST TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. HIGHEST PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS, WITH VISIBILITIES THERE DROPPING
BELOW IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 13Z. CENTRAL MIDLANDS SITES OF CAE/CUB
MAY BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG BANK ACCORDING TO SOME GUIDANCE,
BUT STILL APPEARS AS IF SOME IMPACTS WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AT
ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
14Z AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS MAINLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRL
AVIATION...CAL
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