356
FXUS62 KCAE 041143
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN PATCHY TO THIS POINT. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING IT WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO BECOME DENSE WITH
VISIBILITIES A QUARTER MILE OR LESS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY FAVOR MORE STRATUS VERSUS FOG.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
REINFORCING AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUING TO
FAVOR 500MB HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO ANOMALOUS WARMTH PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THE
LIMITED SPREAD OF BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. POPS WILL BE LIMITED
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY, GENERALLY FAVORING DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH HIGH MOISTURE WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES GREATER
THAN 80% OF PWATS RISING TO ABOVE AN INCH. ENSEMBLE MEANS
GENERALLY FAVOR A BIT OF FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE SHOWING A GOOD MIXTURE OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS CONFINED TO MORE OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE STRATUS IS MORE ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SC/GA. MEANWHILE THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AROUND CAE/CUB
IS CURRENTLY FOG FREE WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AGS/DNL TO GET SQUEEZED WITH FOG/STRATUS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRIOR TO BETTER MIXING TAKING HOLD, AND HAVE
LEANED MORE IN THAT DIRECTION THERE. OGB IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF
THE FOG DECK, AND EXPECT THAT IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE MIXING BEGINS TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS THERE. FOR CAE/CUB, GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE BULLISH ON
KEEPING EITHER VFR, OR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z OR SO.
ALL SITES REALLY HAVE A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING,
AND THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THIS. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES. FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR, BUT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
08Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH MIXING. A RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM SHOULD OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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