538
FXUS62 KCAE 041733
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1233 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHERE SPOTS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- 2. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHERE SPOTS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES
FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE TONIGHT WITH BOTH THE HREF
AND REFS BETWEEN 50-70% FOR MUCH OF THE FA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. THE SREF SHOWS SIMILAR PROBABILITIES AS WELL. THE
DETERMINISTIC HRRR REMAINS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE, THOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS BACKED OFF SOME AND FAVORS A BIT MORE
STRATUS. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A 20-25 KT LLJ IS SEEN
DEVELOPING IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THIS MAY KEEP SURFACE WINDS
UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG THREAT AND RATHER LEAD TO A BIT MORE
STRATUS. EITHER WAY, A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT
AND WITH MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE ACROSS MULTIPLE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES, THE NEED
FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION AS IT
STRENGTHENS WITH FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO WARM THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE STRONG 1.5-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE START OF THIS WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MUCH THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT SOME SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK, BUT WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHOWN IN THE LESS THAN 5F IQR RANGES IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
FOR RAIN CHANCES, PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN APPROACHING 1"
BY FRIDAY, BUT THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND KEEP ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE
WESTERN FA. PWAT'S CONTINUE TO RAISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE MAJORITY OF LREF MEMBERS SHOW PWAT'S
REACHING ABOVE 1.25" BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS, DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY,
BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
WEEK WHERE POCKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM A BAJA LOW
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD FOG-
STRATUS BRINGS IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STEADILY BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
TO OUT EAST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING ABOVE THE INVERSION; LIKELY WILL
NOT REACH LLWS CRITERIA THOUGH FOR A TAF MENTION. OUTSIDE OF
SOME HIGH STRATO- CIRRUS, NO OTHER NOTABLE CLOUD COVER, OR CIG-
VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING A HYBRID FOG- STRATUS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR SHORTLY
BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS, A MIX
OF VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY RESIDUAL
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page