988
FXUS62 KCAE 042320
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH LOWS
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES FAIRLY
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG WITH BOTH THE HREF AND REFS
SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MUCH OF THE FA, BUT ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-20. ONCE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A 20-25 KT LLJ SHOWN
IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH MAY KEEP SURFACE WINDS UP ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND FAVOR STRATUS INSTEAD.
EITHER WAY, A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF A MILE ACROSS MULTIPLE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ANY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS
WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION AS IT
STRENGTHENS WITH FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO WARM THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE STRONG 1.5-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE START OF THIS WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MUCH THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT SOME SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK, BUT WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHOWN IN THE LESS THAN 5F IQR RANGES IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
FOR RAIN CHANCES, PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN APPROACHING 1"
BY FRIDAY, BUT THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND KEEP ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE
WESTERN FA. PWAT'S CONTINUE TO RAISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE MAJORITY OF LREF MEMBERS SHOW PWAT'S
REACHING ABOVE 1.25" BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS, DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY,
BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
WEEK WHERE POCKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM A BAJA LOW
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR MAINLY EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS BRINGS IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE HAS SET UP RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF SMOKE FROM CONTROLLED
BURNS HAVE SO FAR MANAGED TO AVOID THE TAF SITES, AND WHILE I
CAN;T RULE OUT A LITTLE BIT WORKING INTO A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS,
IT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS,
LIGHT WINDS, AND ONLY THIN CIRRUS PASSING BY, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DOMINANT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES STARTING AT
AROUND 8-9Z, AND ENDING BY NOON. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING IF FOG OR VERY LOW CIGS WILL DOMINATE AS THERE IS A
BIT OF A LOW LEVEL JET, BUT I THINK THE JET WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
BY SUNRISE THAT FOG WILL DOMINATE FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO LIFT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT LOW CIGS COULD
HOLD ON A BIT LONGER AT SOME SPOTS THAN I AM CURRENTLY
FORECASTING AS STRATUS CAN BE PRETTY STUBBORN TO BREAK IN
PATTERNS LIKE THIS, BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR
KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS PAST NOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...FA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page