780
FXUS62 KCAE 051133
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG FAVORED IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING MAY BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES.
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG, WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
INTERSPERSED WITHIN, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. TONIGHT, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE SAME LOCATION WITH LOWER WINDS ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO FAVOR MORE PATCHY FOG VERSUS WIDESPREAD FOG.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS
WEEKEND.
A PERSISTENT BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PERIOD CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE AS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OVER THE AREA. BY
SATURDAY, LREF PROBABILITIES OF PWATS RISING TO ABOVE AN INCH
AND A QUARTER ARE BETWEEN 50-60% AND AS THE RIDGE LIKELY WEAKENS
FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT EASTWARD, PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NOT BEGIN TO LIFT, BURN OFF,
AND IMPROVE UNTIL BETWEEN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER THAT, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LOW END VFR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT LITTLE IMPACTS DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE. A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED
TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WOULD NOT BE
UNTIL THE VERY TAIL END OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE HELD OFF
MENTIONING IN LATEST TAFS. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO BEGIN
ADDING RESTRICTIONS AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES AND GREATER PORTIONS
OF THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE IMPACTED. WINDS TODAY WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND MIXING
TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY, THEN TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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