688
FXUS62 KCAE 051738
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN AFTER TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- 2. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE ROBUST RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BEFORE WARMING
FURTHER (THE LOW TO MID 80S) TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND. THIS COMES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ANOMALOUSLY WARM. THE MID WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AS WELL, THOUGH THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS MORE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A BAJA LOW.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY, AIDING IN BRINGING PWAT'S ABOVE 1". THE
MEAN HREF SOLUTION AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE FA
WITH STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND, MORE DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PWAT'S SHOULD REACH 200-220% OF NORMAL BY
SUNDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY NEAR THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
FORCING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE MAKING IT TO THE FA IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
WEEK WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LINGERING. THE MAIN CHANGE COMES
AFTER TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID WEEK AS GREATER ENSEMBLE AND
CLUSTER SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE EVOLUTION OF A BAJA LOW. AT THIS
TIME THIS UPPER LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL SURFACE RESPONSE DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY, BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. OVERALL, EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD BEGIN NEARING THE FA DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OUT TO THAT
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS THROUGH 19Z POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IFR-LIFR STRATUS-FOG EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, CONTINUING TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THIS LED TO WIDESPREAD FOG-
STRATUS THAT HAS MIXED OUT TO MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES; VFR
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS STRATUS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
09-10Z FOR ALL SITES, LASTING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z. LIKE
THURSDAY, IT WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS AS WINDS
BETWEEN 1-2K FEET WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO PREVENT A PURE FOG
EVENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...42
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