147
FXUS62 KCAE 052312
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN AFTER TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- 2. CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.
A ROBUST RIDGE IS OVERHEAD AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND TO START THE WEEKEND. THIS COMES AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 8-12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING ANOMALOUSLY WARM. THE MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AS WELL, THOUGH THERE IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS MORE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A BAJA LOW.
KEY MESSAGE #2: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TOMORROW INTO NEXT
WEEK.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY, AIDING IN BRINGING PWAT'S ABOVE 1". THE
MEAN HREF SOLUTION AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS SHOULD FORM MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS THE FA
WITH STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND, MORE DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PWAT'S SHOULD REACH 200-220% OF NORMAL BY
SUNDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY NEAR THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
FORCING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE MAKING IT TO THE FA IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
WEEK WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LINGERING. THE MAIN CHANGE COMES
AFTER TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID WEEK AS GREATER ENSEMBLE AND
CLUSTER SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE EVOLUTION OF A BAJA LOW. AT THIS
TIME THIS UPPER LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL SURFACE RESPONSE DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY, BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. OVERALL, EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD BEGIN NEARING THE FA DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OUT TO THAT
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE DEEPLY LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGINNING
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND LINGERING THROUGH A CHUNK OF THE
MORNING, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING. THE LOWEST
MORNING VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF
AGS AND OGB, BUT CIGS WILL BE VERY LOW ANYWAY, PROVIDING LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...FA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page