544
FXUS62 KCAE 060624
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE OVERALL PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING ISN'T ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
ANY FOG OR STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PASSING
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE
RIDGE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY "COOLER" HIGHS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AGAIN FOR MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK
DUE TO THIS.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE (150-200% OF NORMAL), DIURNAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, THERE ISN'T MUCH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE ACTIVITY, SO THINKING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT
BEST. THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2 IS FORECAST TO SEND A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, PROVIDING A BETTER FORCING
MECHANISM THAT TODAY OR SATURDAY. THAT SAID, THE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT, SO FORCING ISN'T EXPECTED
TO BE TOO STRONG. WITH THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN PLACE, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW, HOWEVER. THE DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL
TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT REALLY MUCH CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE AND OVERALL PATTERN FROM
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AROUND 09Z-10Z AS LIFR STRATUS, WITH TEMPO
PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z-14Z. THE
LOWEST MORNING VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS OF AGS AND OGB. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEN EXPECTED
BY 15Z AT ALL LOCATIONS AS MIXING BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL WINDS. AS FOR ANY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THERE IS A BATCH OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA THAT IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CSRA. HOWEVER, MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACTIVITY REACHING AGS/DNL AT THIS TIME.
LATER TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY,
AND INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE, CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE LIMITS
PLACING IN ANY TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH. EITHER CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN BETWEEN 4-8
KNOTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
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