992
FXUS62 KCAE 061130
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE OVERALL PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING ISN'T ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
ANY FOG OR STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PASSING
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE
RIDGE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY "COOLER" HIGHS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AGAIN FOR MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK
DUE TO THIS.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE (150-200% OF NORMAL), DIURNAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, THERE ISN'T MUCH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE ACTIVITY, SO THINKING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT
BEST. THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2 IS FORECAST TO SEND A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, PROVIDING A BETTER FORCING
MECHANISM THAT TODAY OR SATURDAY. THAT SAID, THE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT, SO FORCING ISN'T EXPECTED
TO BE TOO STRONG. WITH THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN PLACE, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW, HOWEVER. THE DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL
TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT REALLY MUCH CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE AND OVERALL PATTERN FROM
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING
STRATUS/FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IFR/LIFR STRATUS, ALONG WITH WITH TEMPO
PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z-14Z. THE
LOWEST MORNING VSBYS ARE ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR THEN EXPECTED BY 15Z AT ALL LOCATIONS AS MIXING
BRINGS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS. AS FOR ANY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY, AND INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE, CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME THE
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. WILL
NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. EITHER CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN
BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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