589
FXUS62 KCAE 061832
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 FOR POTENTIAL FOG TONIGHT. MINIMAL
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IS SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
A FAIRLY RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION TONIGHT, LIMITING LOWS TOWARD THE LOW TO
MID 60S AND BRINGING POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT IS SEEN WHERE A 20-25 KT LLJ
LOOKS TO SET UP TONIGHT AND LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FOG. WITH THIS SAID,
AREAS OF FOG WITH SPOTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN SEEN THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE APEX OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING NEAR THE
REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY IN PLACE SATURDAY
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES REACHING TOWARD 16-19C AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS TOWARD
THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN, AND THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S CONTINUING SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT SOME IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS A BAJA LOW DIGS IN
AND SLOWLY STARTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK, THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN, LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY
AT LEAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE ECMWF
EFI WHERE VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ARE BETWEEN 0.7-0.8
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING 0.9 ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOT CONTOUR OF 1 OVER THE REGION, SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. GREATER IQR RANGES ARE SEEN
IN BLENDED GUIDANCE BY THURSDAY HOWEVER AS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE BAJA LOW. RIGHT NOW, IT
APPEARS TROUGHING SHOULD REPLACE THE RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE WEAK SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND AS PWAT'S CONTINUE TO RISE (CURRENTLY NEAR 1.25"
FROM GOES-19 PW IMAGERY) A COUPLE MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A WEAK
STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TOWARD THE
WESTERN FA. HEADING INTO SATURDAY, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE
GENERALLY HANGS ON AND LIMITS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT NEAR. CAM'S SHOW CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
EASTWARD. BY THE EVENING HOURS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING OVER
THE FA, BUT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE IN AS THE
FRONT NEARS. THIS DIFFUSE FRONT FIZZLES OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT MAY
AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY WEEK, MORE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
NEBULOUS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING AS
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER. THIS IS REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL IN
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY ENTERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM THE
PROGRESSION OF THE BAJA LOW AND HOW IT INTERACTS OR IS ABSORBED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS NEARLY A EVEN FOUR WAY SPLIT
BETWEEN LREF CLUSTERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH/LOW QUITE
A BIT STILL. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
CHANCE FOR A POTENTIAL MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM, BUT IN GENERAL,
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, CONTINUING TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THIS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS
THAT HAS MIXED OUT TO MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES AS OF 19Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH IFR-LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z FOR ALL SITES, LASTING THROUGH
ROUGHLY 15-16Z. LIKE FRIDAY, IT WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF FOG AND
STRATUS AS WINDS BETWEEN 1-2K FEET WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO
PREVENT A PURE FOG EVENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED STARTING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...42
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