445
FXUS62 KCAE 070029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS AND KEY MESSAGE 3
UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
A FAIRLY RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE REGION TONIGHT, LIMITING LOWS TOWARD THE LOW TO
MID 60S AND BRINGING POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT IS SEEN WHERE A 20-25 KT LLJ
LOOKS TO SET UP TONIGHT AND LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FOG. WITH THIS SAID,
AREAS OF FOG WITH SPOTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN SEEN THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE APEX OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING NEAR THE
REGION TODAY AND RESULTED IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING TOWARD 16-19C AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS TOWARD THE LOWER
80S ONCE AGAIN, AND THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S CONTINUING SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT SOME IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS A BAJA LOW DIGS IN AND
SLOWLY STARTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK, THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN, LEADING TO THE
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AT
LEAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE ECMWF
EFI WHERE VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ARE BETWEEN 0.7-0.8
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING 0.9 ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOT CONTOUR OF 1 OVER THE REGION, SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. GREATER IQR RANGES ARE SEEN
IN BLENDED GUIDANCE BY THURSDAY HOWEVER AS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE BAJA LOW. RIGHT NOW, IT
APPEARS TROUGHING SHOULD REPLACE THE RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HEADING INTO SATURDAY, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE
GENERALLY HANGS ON AND LIMITS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
STORMS UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT NEAR. CAM'S SHOW CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
EASTWARD. BY THE EVENING HOURS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING OVER
THE FA, BUT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE IN AS THE
FRONT NEARS. THIS DIFFUSE FRONT FIZZLES OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT MAY
AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY WEEK, MORE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
NEBULOUS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING AS
THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER. THIS IS REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL IN
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY ENTERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM THE
PROGRESSION OF THE BAJA LOW AND HOW IT INTERACTS OR IS ABSORBED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS NEARLY A EVEN FOUR WAY SPLIT
BETWEEN LREF CLUSTERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH/LOW QUITE
A BIT STILL. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
CHANCE FOR A POTENTIAL MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM, BUT IN GENERAL,
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN THIS
EVENING. I EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN DISTANT ENOUGH FROM
THE TERMINALS TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND PAST MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS, IT'D BE FOOLISH TO THINK THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WOULD VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE, THE TAFS ARE GOING TO LOOK
QUITE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENINGS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
FILL IN DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO
LIFR DOMINATING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
THE EVENTUAL BREAKUP BY LATE MORNING, GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY, I DO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY,
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...FA
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