282
FXUS62 KCAE 071140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 AND AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY STRATUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW END FOG NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER, A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK ARE ALREADY SHOWING
UP, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME OTHER LOCATIONS SEEING BRIEF PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE REGION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD TODAY INTO SUNDAY, TEMPORARILY
FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVENTUALLY, THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO RESTRENGTHEN. DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE
RIDGE RESTRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
BUMP UP EVEN HIGHER FORE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL
TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MIDWEEK REMAIN RATHER SMALL,
LEADING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGH TEMPS. THE SPREAD
INCREASES QUITE A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK, LEADING TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FLATTENING SOME TODAY,
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO OUR WEST.
THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM) THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2 IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME WASHED OUT TO SOME EXTENT. THAT SAID, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE AREA TO PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO INTO THE PEEDEE REGION. WITH THE
RESIDUAL HEAT AND MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF A
FORCING MECHANISM, COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ISOLATED,
HOWEVER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BRING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE RESTRICTIONS
RETURN LATE TONIGHT.
A STRATUS DECK WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS HAS OVERSPREAD THE ARE
THIS MORNING, WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY BEING
OBSERVED AT OGB. A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK ARE STARTING
TO APPEAR ALREADY, BUT SOME OF THEM HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY AROUND 15Z AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT COULD BE SOONER DEPENDING ON IF THOSE BREAKS ARE
ABLE TO EXPAND QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RINSE AND REPEAT
SCENARIO OF STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOG. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.
CAE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY,
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...29
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