619
FXUS62 KCAE 071739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 AND AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY STRATUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW END FOG NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER, A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK ARE ALREADY SHOWING
UP, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME OTHER LOCATIONS SEEING BRIEF PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE REGION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD TODAY INTO SUNDAY, TEMPORARILY
FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVENTUALLY, THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO RESTRENGTHEN. DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE
RIDGE RESTRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
BUMP UP EVEN HIGHER FORE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL
TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MIDWEEK REMAIN RATHER SMALL,
LEADING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGH TEMPS. THE SPREAD
INCREASES QUITE A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK, LEADING TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FLATTENING SOME TODAY,
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO OUR WEST.
THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM) THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2 IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME WASHED OUT TO SOME EXTENT. THAT SAID, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE AREA TO PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW AS THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO INTO THE PEEDEE REGION. WITH THE
RESIDUAL HEAT AND MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF A
FORCING MECHANISM, COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ISOLATED,
HOWEVER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BRING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, IN ADDITION TO SOME SHOWERS.
IFR AND MVFR STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED TO VFR CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS COMMENCED. SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS OF
15-20 KNOTS OCCURRING. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THE
SETUP IS SUCH THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO CAE/CUB THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE
GENERALLY SHOULD BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED. BY TONIGHT, THESE WILL
WEAKEN BUT A CLUSTER OF REMNANT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST
PERSIST IN SOME FORM AS IT IS A PRETTY SOLID LINE OF STORMS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. I DOUBT IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS OR EVEN MAKE IT TO OGB AS THE BEST
FORCING SHOULD BE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH. THE OTHER PROBLEM
TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE STRATUS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE
SETUP OVERALL, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS TO MAKE THE MOST
SENSE. SO MVFR IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES, WITH IFR EXPECTED AT
OGB, TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE CASE. EXPECT THAT TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY, WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY,
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...PL
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