125
FXUS62 KCAE 072351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
- 3. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
WEEK, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANDER
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL OVER 1000 J/KG AND SOME WEAK SHEAR IS
HELPING BRIEFLY ORGANIZE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SO SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH
8PM OR SO BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF. THE DECAYING MCS AND
SQUALL LINE, CURRENTLY IN MS-AL, WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO OUR
REGION LATE TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL DROP OFF,
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN, SO A SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS DECAYING LINE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE
OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3AM-7AM.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE REGION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD TODAY INTO SUNDAY, TEMPORARILY
FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVENTUALLY, THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO RESTRENGTHEN. DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE
RIDGE RESTRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
BUMP UP EVEN HIGHER FORE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL
TROUGH. ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MIDWEEK REMAIN RATHER SMALL,
LEADING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGH TEMPS. THE SPREAD
INCREASES QUITE A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK, LEADING TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE #3: CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2 IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, BUT IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
WASHED OUT TO SOME EXTENT. THAT SAID, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING IN THE AREA TO PRODUCE MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A STRONGER STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO INTO
THE PEEDEE REGION; STORMS OVERPERFORMED TODAY, SO GUIDANCE IS
NOT DOING A GREAT JOB RESOLVING THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE RESIDUAL HEAT AND
MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM,
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ISOLATED, HOWEVER. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN STRATUS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TN/AL WHICH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA. SOME
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS EXCEPT OGB DURING THE 05Z-10Z TIME
FRAME BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS FAVORING
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND IMPACTING OGB WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS (WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO THERE). STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING (14Z-15Z) AND A VFR CEILING EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES
DIFFUSE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
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