210
FXUS62 KCAE 080642
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN AND STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- 2. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SOME DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- 3. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCH EASTWARD, IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, SO
THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THESE SHOWERS GET. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT RAIN STAYS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR, BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REACH BEYOND THAT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT DOES, AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
BECOMING DIFFUSE AT IT DOES. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WHILE CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL (500-1000 J/KG)
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE TO SUPPORT A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM, MAINLY CLOSE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER. THUS, SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STORMS FOR TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, SO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE
TODAY IS SOMEWHAT RELIANT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS GETS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT CAN BUR OFF. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY PASSES, THE
ANTICIPATED HEAT THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGS CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE #3: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS STARTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOING SO THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THAT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY AND MONDAY. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK,
STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER FOR MIDWEEK. BOTH THE NAEFS AND
ECMWF EFI SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE AT THE TOP OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHART FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE, THE
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE IS 89F AT BOTH CAE AND AGS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS GIVES US A DECENT SHOT AT THE RECORD HIGH TEMP AT BOTH
SITES, WHICH HAPPENS TO BE 88F AT EACH LOCATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR AVERAGE, WHICH WILL LIKELY
FEEL CHILLY GIVEN THE LONG STRETCH OF SUCH WARM WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR/IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND BRING PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, MOST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
LINE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER, THAT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE 08-12Z TIMEFRAME
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING, FAVORING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
GENERALLY REMAINING MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT BY MID MORNING (14Z- 15Z) AND A VFR
CEILING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
AT TERMINALS IS LIMITED, SO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KTS. ADDITIONAL GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STRONGER -TSRA/-SHRA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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