344
FXUS62 KCAE 081743
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
- 3. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIDDAY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN CSRA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL
PIVOT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY CHESTERFIELD COUNTY REMAINING IN THE LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BASED ON SATELLITE DATA, THE MOST
SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE PEE DEE SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THERE FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A CUT OFF LOW ANCHORED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLUGGISHLY MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
OPENING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT REJOINS THE MAIN FLOW. THE
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH WEDNESDAY
SLATED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN RECORDS MAY BE
CHALLENGED. BOTH THE NAEFS AND ECMWF EFI SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE AT THE TOP OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHART FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE, THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE IS 89F AT
BOTH CAE AND AGS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS GIVES US A DECENT SHOT AT
MEETING OR EXCEED THE RECORD HIGHS, WHICH HAPPEN TO BE 88F AT
BOTH LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE #3: THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON TUESDAY, THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS THE WEEK GOES ON. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO THE TAF SITES.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER RESTRICTIONS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
OR NOT - HOWEVER, PERSISTENCE LEANS TOWARDS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS.
THE STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING QUICKLY CLEARED AND GAVE WAY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. AN INTERESTING FORECAST EXISTS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
MOVING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH THE CLOUD COVER CREATING
A BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SC. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SAID BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL SITES. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE
IN AFTER THIS AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN. IT SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT ORANGEBURG WHICH IS EAST OF THE CURRENTLY
BUBBLING CUMULUS. A PROB30 FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ADD TO ALL
SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ORANGEBURG
POTENTIALLY CLOSEST TO NEEDING A TEMPO GROUP. THE LIGHT RAIN
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY CURTAIL ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEEPER INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, THERE
IS A PERSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR SOME FORM OF
RESTRICTIONS TO REDEVELOP AS THE WEAKENING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAT FOG WILL BE THE DRIVER OF
THESE TONIGHT AS A LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 KNOTS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP US MIXED. STRATUS HAS BEEN COMMON ALL WEEK, AND
THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT DESPITE A
WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. SO EXPECTING STRATUS TO FORM FOR AT
LEAST A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PROBABLY IN THE 06Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OVERNIGHT STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
A THREAT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...PL
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