329
FXUS62 KCAE 090559
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 2. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- 3. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS HAVE
BECOME GENERALLY CALM ACROSS THE AREA. IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
THE CLEAR SKIES, FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REPORTING LESS THAN A MILE, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
SUMTER AREA. NOT A LOT OF FOG IS SHOWING UP ON DOT CAMERAS AT
THIS TIME, HOWEVER. WINDS HAVE BECOME GENERALLY CALM ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR ZERO. AS SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR, EXPECT THE FOG TO EXPAND. AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE DENSER FOG WILL
GET DUE TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SO, WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONUS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, LEADING TO CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AND WE
COULD MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH COLUMBIA (CAE) AND
AUGUSTA (AGS), WHICH ARE BOTH 88F. THE NAEFS AND ECMWF EFI
CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE CHARTS FOR THE DAY. THE
NBM 50TH PERCENTILE IS 89F FOR AGS AND 88F FOR CAE, SO
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT RECORD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN. TEMPS FOR THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED UPWARD AS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PASSING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE #3: THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED, THE TREND OF THIS TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GUIDANCE, WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING IS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING WILL ALSO
PLAY A FACTOR IN WHETHER WE SEE THUNDERSTORMS (AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE STRENGTH) WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT ACTUALLY CLOSER TO AVERAGE, AFTER THE
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME
PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FORM OF
STRATUS OR FOG, WITH THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST LEANING TOWARD AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z IN
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS, THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE
COVERAGE. WHILE FG IS ON THE TABLE, LATEST CAE VWP INDICATES A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 15-20 KTS IS IN PLAY AND MAY KEEP VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT BAY A LITTLE LONGER. GIVEN THAT STRATUS HAS BEEN COMMON OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS AND THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH OF AN AIRMASS
CHANGE, EXPECT SOME MVFR OR IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS TO START SHOWING UP
BY AROUND 08Z. GUIDANCE THEN GENERALLY FAVORS IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING, AND THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS AND A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 15 KTS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OVERNIGHT STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
A THREAT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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