228
FXUS62 KCAE 091825 AAA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE MAY ALLOW AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT WARMER WITH THE
SLOWER FRONT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN FA
TONIGHT.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
- 3. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN
FA TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ARKANSAS, SPARKING
CONVECTION IN A MOIST AIRMASS ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO
UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INTO A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
THAT MOVES THROUGH AL AND NORTH CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. RECENT
HRRR AND RRFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED THE MCS A BIT FURTHER NORTH, BUT
STILL HAVE IT DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL GA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT'S RAISING TO NEAR 1.25" AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS THE WESTERN FA THANKS TO MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH AROUND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE WANING AS THE MCS NEARS AFTER 05- 07Z WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS THAN 400 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
OVERALL, THINKING IS THAT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REACH THE WESTERN FA AFTER 05-07Z TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THIS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED AS IT NEAR THE FA THUS SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE LOW BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER SEGMENT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35-50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S IS OCCURRING TODAY AS A UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK, A BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD, LEADING TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WITH THIS RIDGE NEARING 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SHOULD AID IN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHERE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WARM PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MOST RECENT AND
IMPRESSIVE EC EFI RUN WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.9-0.95 EACH DAY
WITH A SOT OF 1 OVER THE WHOLE CWA. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE/AI
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GENERALLY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BAJA LOW AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE #3: THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
AS MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
BAJA LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS GENERALLY BEEN SLOWED
ACROSS GUIDANCE. THIS SHIFT NOW FAVORS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT NEARING THE REGION CLOSER TO THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME RATHER THAN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SAID, TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST ACROSS
LREF CLUSTERS SO SHIFTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AS THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT NEAR, PWAT'S SHOULD RAISE TO 200-220% OF NORMAL WITH
MAJORITY OF EACH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING AT
LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY. AI/ML GUIDANCE SUCH AS CSU, THE PANGU,
AND FENGWU ENSEMBLES SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EXISTS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL SITES, AND THIS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WRINKLE
IN THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WEATHER IS TRULY BEAUTIFUL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES,
WITH THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
CUMULUS DOTS THE SKY, REMAINING VFR AFTER ANOTHER MORNING OF
VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE AT THIS
POINT IS SOME BREEZY WINDS THAT ARE OSCILLATING FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 8-15
KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, SETTLING DOWN THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY
BULLISH ON A DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA
AFTER 06Z, ESPECIALLY NEAREST THE AUGUSTA SITES. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES EXIST IN THE 06Z-15Z TIMEFRAME BECAUSE
OF THIS AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING IT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT UP TO SPEED ON THIS, THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK ALONG A
REMNANT WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE VCSH AT ALL
SITES, WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS/DNL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH BUT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. SO
EXPECT RAIN AT ALL SITES AT SOME POINT TONIGHT, WITH AGS/DNL
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BY THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO KICK BACK UP AGAIN
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...PL
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