241
FXUS62 KCAE 100058
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
858 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING MCS UPSTREAM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
CSRA, GENERALLY AFTER 2AM. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
- 3. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM COULD MOVE INTO
WESTERN FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE AREA. WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL, HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOVING INTO A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY
MISSING THE CSRA, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS STILL SEEM LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AFTER 2 AM INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW AS SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
UPSTREAM IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY MORE FAVORABLE. WHILE AN ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AS A RESULT, THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK, A BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD, LEADING TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS RIDGE NEARING 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
SHOULD AID IN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHERE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WARM PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MOST RECENT AND
IMPRESSIVE EC EFI RUN WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.9-0.95 EACH DAY
WITH A SOT OF 1 OVER THE WHOLE CWA. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE/AI
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GENERALLY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BAJA LOW AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE #3: THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
AS MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
BAJA LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS GENERALLY BEEN SLOWED
ACROSS GUIDANCE. THIS SHIFT NOW FAVORS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT NEARING THE REGION CLOSER TO THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME RATHER THAN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SAID, TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST ACROSS
LREF CLUSTERS SO SHIFTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AS THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT NEAR, PWAT'S SHOULD RAISE TO 200-220% OF NORMAL WITH
MAJORITY OF EACH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING AT
LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY. AI/ML GUIDANCE SUCH AS CSU, THE PANGU,
AND FENGWU ENSEMBLES SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EXISTS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT HIGHER CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS A
RESULT OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AL INTO
GA. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 5
KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA
BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IMPACTING THE AGS/DNL
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS, INCLUDING THIS IN A
TEMPO GROUP 07Z-11Z. A SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING WITH IMPROVING SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS PICKING BACK UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
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