241
FXUS62 KCAE 100614
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUING TO MONITOR MCS MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN LATE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAIN, BUT BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO WESTERN FA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
- 3. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THURSDAY BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO
WESTERN FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION,
WHICH HAS BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CSRA DOORSTEP. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR REFLECTIVITY,
AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALL SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE CSRA VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY, THERE
IS QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY
AND TOMORROW WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE. ADDITIONALLY,
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION,
USHERING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, ABNORMALLY
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH TOMORROW BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. NEAR RECORD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGHS FOR
COLUMBIA (CAE) AND AUGUSTA (AGS) REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW.
TAKING A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, THERE IS A MODERATELY
HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF TEMPS GREATER THAN 85F FROM THE I-20
CORRIDOR TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE ABOUT HIGHS REACHING
AT LEAST RECORD HIGHS (88F AT BOTH CAE AND AGS), CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES THEN DROP
FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE #3: THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THURSDAY BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #2, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO GET SWEPT UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE TIMING OF WHEN
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP WITH THIS TROUGH, HOWEVER. THIS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF WHEN THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
FRONT ARRIVE TO THE AREA AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY (OR
LATE) THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN BREEZY WINDS AHEAD OF, AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING THE CSRA, AND THEREFORE THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR TWO, AND CAM GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS THE SAME TREND. THAT
SAID, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO THESE
TERMINALS, THOUGH THE EXTENT OF ANY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS IS LESS
CERTAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM UNDER THE STRONGER
CONVECTION IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS, SO DON'T WANT
TO RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED WINDS WHEN THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO CAE/CUB
OR OGB, SO TAFS JUST INDICATE AN INCREASE OF SOME LOWERED CIGS,
THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM VFR. A SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING WITH IMPROVING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS PICKING BACK UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS THEN DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT, VARIABLE AT
LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. SOME
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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