358
FXUS62 KCAE 101832
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN THE TIMING OF THURSDAY'S
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IS VERY
HIGH. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER
COASTER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
- 2. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE
ROLLER COASTER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA AS THE APEX OF THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE IS
NEARING THE AL/GA BORDER. AS THE BAJA LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS FURTHER
EAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY, LEADING TO 500MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FA NEAR THE NAEFS 97.5 PERCENTILE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE THE 99.5 PERCENTILE. THIS
ANOMALOUS AIRMASS BRINGS A VERY IMPRESSIVE EC EFI SIGNAL FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.99-1
WITH A SOT OF 2 OVER THE FA, HIGHLIGHTING THE UNIQUENESS OF THIS
SET UP WITH NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 85-89F WITH A SPOT OR
TWO BREAKING 90F NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. THE RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR BOTH CAE AND AGS
IS 88F, SET BACK IN THE 1990. THE BAJA LOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, LIKELY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTER THIS, A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BEFORE
RAISING TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DECENT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS INTO THE EARLY WEEK, BUT POTENTIAL FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN BLENDED GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS.
AS SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO REACH THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT IS BEING SEEN IN THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY STILL STEMS FROM THE PHASING OF
THE BAJA LOW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD START
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL, A LATER TREND
WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES WHERE
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SEEMS TO COME AFTER 12-15Z
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE LIKE
THE RECENT RAP THAT TRENDS EVEN LATER THAT THIS. WHAT DOES SEEM
PROBABLE IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FA WITH THE FRONT AS FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT'S NEARING 1.25". IN TERMS OF ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE, TIMING DIFFERENCES BRING LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY
BORDERLINE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER MEAGER ACROSS
GUIDANCE WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500-700 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR THOUGH IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 55-65 KTS, SO THIS
WOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. AT
THIS TIME THOUGH, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS A BIT
CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT STILL EXIST, BUT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD COME AS MORE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE REACHES THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF IT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS COMES AS A 30-35 KT LLJ SETS UP WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ALOFT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE HREF MEMBERS TEND TO FAVOR
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, GENERALLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, BUT SOME BROKEN CLOUDS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT REMAINING VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...JAQ
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