073
FXUS62 KCAE 110031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN THE TIMING OF THURSDAY'S
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IS VERY
HIGH. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE
ROLLER COASTER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
- 2. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. A BIT OF A
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
AS THE BAJA LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS FURTHER EAST, THE RIDGE IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY, LEADING TO 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE FA
NEAR THE NAEFS 97.5 PERCENTILE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING
NEAR TO ABOVE THE 99.5 PERCENTILE. THIS ANOMALOUS AIRMASS BRINGS
A VERY IMPRESSIVE EC EFI SIGNAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.99-1 WITH A SOT OF 2 OVER THE
FA, HIGHLIGHTING THE UNIQUENESS OF THIS SET UP WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 85-89F WITH A SPOT OR TWO BREAKING 90F NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. THE RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE
FOR BOTH CAE AND AGS IS 88F, SET BACK IN THE 1990. THE BAJA LOW
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA, LIKELY KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS, A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS COOLER/DRIER AIR BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY BEFORE RAISING TO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DECENT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO THE EARLY WEEK, BUT POTENTIAL FOR
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN BLENDED
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS.
AS SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO REACH THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT IS BEING SEEN IN THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY STILL STEMS FROM THE PHASING OF
THE BAJA LOW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD START
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL, A LATER TREND
WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES WHERE
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SEEMS TO COME AFTER 12-15Z
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE LIKE
THE RECENT RAP THAT TRENDS EVEN LATER THAT THIS. WHAT DOES SEEM
PROBABLE IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FA WITH THE FRONT AS FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT'S NEARING 1.25". IN TERMS OF ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE, TIMING DIFFERENCES BRING LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY
BORDERLINE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER MEAGER ACROSS
GUIDANCE WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500-700 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR THOUGH IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 55-65 KTS, SO THIS
WOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. AT
THIS TIME THOUGH, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS A BIT
CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT STILL EXIST, BUT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD COME AS MORE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE REACHES THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF IT BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS COMES AS A 30-35 KT LLJ SETS UP WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES AFTER 17Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/96
AVIATION...23
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