081
FXUS62 KCAE 120037
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
837 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS WELL.
- 2. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGS THE
CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS WELL.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS, ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH PWAT'S RAISING ABOVE 1.25"
TONIGHT AND NEAR 1.50" THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COMES AS A 35-45
KT LLJ SETS UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
NEARING THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN WHEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA, BUT THE GENERAL WINDOW SEEMS TO BE DURING THE
12-16Z TIMEFRAME. THE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL MAKES THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINE A BIT CONDITIONAL, BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT ACROSS GUIDANCE THAN 24 HOURS AGO DOES BRING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS
LINE. A GLANCE AT THE LATEST CAM'S SHOWS THIS LINE ENTERING THE
WESTERN FA BY 12-14Z, CONTINUING ACROSS THE FA UNTIL CLEARING
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS BY 16-18Z WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH THERE IS A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT.
NEARLY 50 KTS OF FLOW IS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ATOP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS HIGH-RES RUNS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR
AND HREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED IN THE 12Z NCAR HRRR NEURAL
NETWORK GUIDANCE WITH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
KTS EXCEEDING 30% IN SOME POINTS. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LINE
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MEAGER WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY UNDER
500-700 J/KG, BUT WITH NEARLY 60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR RUNNING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY. WITH THE STRONG LLJ IN PLACE, THERE IS ALSO 40-45 KTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST EVIDENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LEADING TO 3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 150 M^2/S^2, THUS
WHILE THE THREAT IS SECONDARY TO WIND GUSTS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT FULLY BE RULED OUT IN THIS LINE. DUE TO THESE FACTORS,
THE CWA IS OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
DRIVING STRONG WINDS AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
THE STRONG LLJ REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A COUPLE GUSTS PUSHING 40 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS HREF PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH
REACH 30-40%. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
TOMORROW THROUGH 8 PM DUE TO THIS. WINDS THEN DECAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
AFTER RECORD HEAT TODAY, VARYING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
8-10 AM BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING NEARING THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FRIDAY BEFORE RAISING ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THAT THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE NIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT SEE LOWS
INTO THE 30S, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW CHILLY IT GETS IS NOT HIGH
AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, THEN SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
MORNING.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 8
KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THEN CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT 10Z AGS/DNL AND 12Z CAE/CUB WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION IN A TEMPO GROUP. STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AFTER 10-12Z WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AND BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH/96
AVIATION...23
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