058
FXUS62 KCAE 121820
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD FRONT IS CLEARING THE AREA WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR BRINGING CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT.
- 2. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- 3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BRINGING CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT.
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S QLCS, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE FA AT THIS TIME, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING
INTO THE 50S NORTH OF I-20 WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS
EVENING DUE TO THESE WINDS BEFORE THEY LIGHTEN TONIGHT. A PUSH
OF MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD YIELD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 34F AND 38F GENERALLY. A
LOOK AT THE MOST RECENT NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 35F TONIGHT YIELDS PROBABILITIES BETWEEN
50-70% TOWARD THE PEE DEE REGION WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN 20-40%
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
RETREATING, BUT STILL SHOULD LINGER SOME TONIGHT AND THUS PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST IS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THIS, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING IN MIND WITH MANY PLANTS BLOOMING AROUND THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK TO THE
FA. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS WARM
ADVECTION REGIME BUT THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH LOOKS TO BE LATER
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING NEARLY 2-3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE TN VALLEY, DRIVING
ROBUST SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE
DEEPENING FURTHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER KINEMATICS NEARING AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT AI/ML GUIDANCE, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
STILL SEEN IN GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT. IN GENERAL, MORE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER STORMS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.
THIS ROBUST SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO YIELD WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ALREADY REACHING
50-70%.
KEY MESSAGE #3: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.
AS DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE #1, COOLER AIR IS CURRENTLY BEING
USHERED IN BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE RAISING ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN STORY TEMPERATURE WISE WILL
BE THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS THAT PUSHES IN BEHIND MONDAY'S
FRONT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING (MAINLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT). WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER AND
BLOSSOMING PLANTS, THIS BRINGS HEIGHTENED CONCERNS FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS NEARING FREEZING
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER IF YOU
HAVE ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z, THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR DOES STILL
SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS
AT ISSUANCE TIME, AND FEEL VCSH SHOULD ONLY BE NEEDED AT OGB FOR
AN HOUR OR SO. AFTER 21Z, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
IMPROVING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR, WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED
AROUND THAT TIME TOO. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN STRONG
AND GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. BY SUNSET WINDS AND
GUSTS DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT. WIND
TURN MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS AROUND 14Z, WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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