200
FXUS62 KCAE 130009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
809 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BRINGING CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT.
- 2. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- 3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BRINGING
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. A PUSH OF MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 34F AND 38F
GENERALLY. A LOOK AT THE MOST RECENT NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES
FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 35F TONIGHT YIELDS PROBABILITIES
BETWEEN 50-70% TOWARD THE PEE DEE REGION WHILE REMAINING BETWEEN
20-40% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
RETREATING, BUT STILL SHOULD LINGER SOME TONIGHT AND THUS PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST IS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THIS, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING IN MIND WITH MANY PLANTS BLOOMING AROUND THE AREA
AND COVERING ESPECIALLY COLD VULNERABLE PLANTS MAY BE A GOOD
IDEA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK TO THE
FA. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS WARM
ADVECTION REGIME BUT THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH LOOKS TO BE LATER
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING NEARLY 2-3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE TN VALLEY, DRIVING
ROBUST SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE
DEEPENING FURTHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER KINEMATICS NEARING AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT AI/ML GUIDANCE, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
STILL SEEN IN GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT. IN GENERAL, MORE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER STORMS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.
THIS ROBUST SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO YIELD WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ALREADY REACHING
50-70%.
KEY MESSAGE #3: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE RAISING
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN STORY
TEMPERATURE WISE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS THAT
PUSHES IN BEHIND MONDAY'S FRONT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE NEARLY 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND POTENTIALLY NEAR
FREEZING (MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT). WITH THE RECENT WARM
WEATHER AND BLOSSOMING PLANTS, THIS BRINGS HEIGHTENED CONCERNS
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS NEARING
FREEZING POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET
CLOSER IF YOU HAVE ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WITH SUN SETTING AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA, WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY, ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/96
AVIATION...96
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