350
FXUS62 KCAE 131015
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A ROBUST, STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AN
MONDAY. IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND
STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- 2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A ROBUST, STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE WEATHER GETS MORE ACTIVE AND INTERESTING IN A HURRY ON
SUNDAY AS A DEEP, CONUS SCALE SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. A BREAK IN THE INTENSE, PHASED JET STREAM IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
AN INTENSE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INTENSE
MASS RESPONSE ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS ARE FORECAST TO MANIFEST ON
SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN A MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THIS, AND MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY, OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE RAPIDLY FALLS ACROSS THE
AREA. SURFACE WIND GUSTS - OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS - LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE 30-40 MPH OR GREATER ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ROBUST COLD FRONT.
SYNOPTICALLY, THIS IS NOT THE TYPICAL TRACK WE WOULD WANT TO SEE
A MID-LEVEL LOW TAKE (INTO THE GREAT LAKES). HOWEVER, THE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK ARE SO DEEP & STRONG THAT ROBUST HEIGHT
FALLS ARE FORECAST BY ALL PIECES OF GUIDANCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS IS FORECAST ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ADVECTING AN
ANOMALOUS RECEIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS UNUSUALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE
FORECASTS, WITH GFS/EC GUIDANCE SHOWING >1000 J/KG OF CAPE
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STEADILY
INCREASING PROBS OF >500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL, WITH GEFS
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING 50-70% PROBS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM AS OUTLANDISH AS IT
NORMALLY WOULD (ESPECIALLY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A NON-DIURNAL
INCREASE IN CAPE). IT IS BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY THE COMBO OF
ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS (COOL TEMPS ALOFT) AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IF ANYTHING, THIS KIND OF SIGNAL FOR CAPE IS
A CONFIDENCE BUILDER AT THIS RANGE. SHEAR IS NOT IN QUESTION AS
COULD BE ANTICIPATED IN A SETUP LIKE THIS, SO JUST FACTOR THAT
IN AUTOMATICALLY. THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY
WITH THIS BEING A DAY 4 FORECAST AT THIS POINT. SPC OUTLINED THE
AREA IN A D5 SLIGHT & EXPECTING THAT TO BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
D4 FORECAST. WHILE THERE ARE DETAILS TO WORK OUT, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT MONDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING IMPACTS TO THE
FORECAST ARE IN TERMS OF STRONG, NON- THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
AND A POTENTIALLY SEVERE LINE OF STORMS. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS!
KEY MESSAGE #2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MID-MARCH COLD SNAP EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AN AIRMASS WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS WILL INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND THEN PUSH TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
ON MONDAY NIGHT, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACTUALLY
INTENSIFIES A BIT BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS LIKELY SETTLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF LOWS <32F ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING, AND
THIS MAKES SENSE. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY IN ADDITION TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWS
LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE) FAVOR TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S MANY PLACES. WE MAY NEED A FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT AT THIS RANGE. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS
WILL BE BUT A FREEZE LOOKS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. BEYOND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BEGIN TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE TAF PERIOD....
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MAY PERIODICALLY GUST TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page