849
FXUS62 KCAE 131816
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
IN A STRONG FRONT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A ROBUST, STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY. IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND STRONG NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- 2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A ROBUST, STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY.
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND STRONG
NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG 250MB JET AND
EMBEDDED UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US. FOR OUR
AREA, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH PWAT'S OVER 1.5" BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE
HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT, THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE
THREAT MONDAY, PERHAPS SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY POOR DIURNAL
TIMING, BUT THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM GENERALLY OFFSET THIS.
KINEMATICS ARE ROBUST WITH A STRENGTHENING 850MB JET AROUND 50
KNOTS AND CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM SHEAR FOR A SEVERE WIND
AND TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL A FAIRLY CLASSIC HSLC SETUP FOR
EASTERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS, HENCE 15-30% SEVERE OUTLOOKS FOR
DAY 4. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN THE DAY 3-4
TIMEFRAME WITH LREF JOINT PROBS OF GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE STILL SITTING AROUND 50-75%,
HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN SC. IN TERMS OF UNFAVORABLE FEATURES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, THE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF STRONGEST
FORCING IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WE WOULD TYPICALLY SEE FOR A
SEVERE OUTBREAK IN OUR AREA. SO GIVEN SUFFICIENT, BUT SOMEWHAT
BORDERLINE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, AN OVER- SHEARED SCENARIO
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION STRUGGLES IS A FAILURE MODE. OUTSIDE OF
INHERENT TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, THE PRESENCE
OF DEEP WARMS SECTOR CONVECTION AND/OR WAA STRATUS COULD
BOLSTER OR HINDER SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN GA
AND WESTERN SC.
BEYOND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THE GRADIENT WIND FIELD WILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH VERY STRONG JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CAA
REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT; -3 TO 5 DEG C OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS AND A WELL MIXED LAYER
UP THROUGH 700MB. WHILE THE ISALLOBARIC FLOW IS NOT QUITE
OPTIMIZED, WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY STARTING MONDAY
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LASTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. NBM PROBS
FOR OVER 40 MPH MONDAY IS AROUND 50-75% AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
IS GENERALLY 40-50 MPH. SO A WIND ADVISORY IS DEFINITELY ON THE
TABLE FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MID- MARCH COLD SNAP EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AN AIRMASS WITH ARCTIC
ORIGINS WILL INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THEN PUSH TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON
MONDAY NIGHT, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACTUALLY
INTENSIFIES A BIT BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
LIKELY SETTLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING INCREASING PROBABILITIES
OF LOWS <32F ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING, AND THIS MAKES SENSE.
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN
ADDITION TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWS LESS THAN THE 10TH
PERCENTILE) FAVOR TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
MANY PLACES. WE MAY NEED A FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT EVENT AT THIS RANGE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT OVERALL
FROST POTENTIAL GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE BUT A FREEZE
LOOKS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. BEYOND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, TEMPS
LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THIS HAS ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO TRY MOVING
INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAS ONLY PRODUCED A FEW CUMULUS
IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING SKIES CLEAR,
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT, BUT AS USUAL
A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY GROUND FOG AT AGS/OGB CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE. AS FOR WINDS, AS MENTIONED
THEY WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, AND GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. BY SUNSET WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, WITH THOSE CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY COULD
BRING RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS, BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND IT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR THEN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY ONWARD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CAL
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