197
FXUS62 KCAE 141901
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
18Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT.
- 2. A DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY BRINGING
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE AND
STRONG, NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.
- 3: POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT.
THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD STARTS ON SUNDAY AS A
VERY DYNAMIC AND INTENSIFYING 500MB TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID
60S. HI-RES GUIDANCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET PRETTY INTERESTING
AFTER 18Z WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH
SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KNOTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CURVATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS
WITH A PEAK DURING THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES
OVER 100 M2S2 AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2S2 SO THERE
WILL BE A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
HI-RES GUIDANCE OVERALL SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED AND SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS BUT THE TORNADO AND, TO A
LOWER DEGREE, HAIL RISK IS PRESENT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY
BRINGING POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE AND STRONG, NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ATOP A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER (CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS). DEEP LAYER 0-6KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AND HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1KM SRH
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 M2S2.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH A CROSS FRONT
TEMP GRADIENT OF 20-25 DEGREES PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING COINCIDING WITH THE STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE HEIGHT
FALLS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A QLCS LINE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
POTENTIAL ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF IT. QLCS TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TORNADOES
IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE SPC ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT AS MENTIONED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING FOR THIS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH AND STILL THINKING THE 8AM TO 2PM TIME FRAME IS
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
BEING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG AND PROVIDE NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30-35+ MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES TAPPING INTO 45-55 KNOT
850MB WINDS. THE ECE EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS AND THIS STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND MONDAY'S FRONT, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
COULD DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT NEAR THE REGION, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GET. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD,
LEADING TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HARD FREEZE, WITH GREATEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASSUMING THESE TRENDS CONTINUE,
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
MAYBE MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF RIVER FOG, VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD....
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 12Z OR SO TO THE TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES FROM 12-18Z. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO 18Z AT THE
TERMINALS, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE AT AGS/DNL THAN THE OTHER
TERMINALS. THAT SAID, CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 12Z OR 13Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY LIKELY BRINGS
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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