282
FXUS62 KCAE 150638
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FREEZE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF'S.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
- 2. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) AND STRONG
TORNADOES (EF2+) POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. A MODERATE RISK (4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR PART OF THE AREA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN
ENHANCED RISK (3/5).
- 3: MULTIPLE NIGHTS WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST TO KICK OFF TODAY. WV
IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS AN INTENSE JET STREAK
DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMMENCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING; HOWEVER, THEY ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE LOW
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SHOWING UP IN RAP SOUNDINGS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY HAVE MORE CAPE IN THE PROFILE THAN IT DID YESTERDAY, WITH
MID 60S DEWPOINTS FOSTERING 750+ J/KG OF CAPE. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GET THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE BETTER
SHEAR. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR ALL CONVECTIVE
HAZARDS INCLUDING HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES IF A STRONG
STORM DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED SAID THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER DAY CONVECTION. THE RRFS AND HRRR
ARE SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH - THUS, THE
CONDITIONAL THREAT. SPC HAS INCLUDED US IN A MARGINAL RISK TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT, WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE QUESTION
MARKS AROUND THE RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) AND STRONG
TORNADOES (EF2+) POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MODERATE RISK (4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR PART OF THE AREA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK (3/5).
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS ON THE TABLE
MONDAY AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT, PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT, WITH DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT. A POWERFUL SYNOPTIC
SCALE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIVE THIS THREAT, AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH A POWERFUL
AND BROAD JET STREAK PUSHING EASTWARD AS IT DOES SO. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 100-120 KNOTS, WITH A SECONDARY
JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IS
FORECAST TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 45-55 KNOTS AT 850 HPA WILL ADVECT DEWPOINTS OF 10C-12C
AT 850 & MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THIS,
ROBUST 500 HPA HEIGHT FALLS OF 6-8DM/12HR WILL DRIVE COLD AIR
ALOFT OVER THIS ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE SOME
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A BROAD RESERVOIR OF 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS STEADILY BEEN SLOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN, SO
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
SAID FRONT, LIKELY REALIZING THE MODELED INSTABILITY.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY 11A MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SAID
FRONT, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE INTENSE. THE SECONDARY JET
STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HELP THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. COMBINE THIS WITH A FRONT THAT HAS A TEMP GRADIENT OF 20F+
ALONG IT, AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4MB/6HR, AND THE
FORCING FOR A ROBUST QLCS IS VERY STRONG. RRFS/HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO THE KIND OF
ENVIRONMENT THIS FRONT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. SAID ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY 50+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, 40+
KNOTS OF 3KM SHEAR, 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH, 1000+ J/KG OF
MLCAPE, AND 150-200 J/KG OF 3KM CAPE. AS SUCH, GUIDANCE SHOWS A
BROKEN, INTENSE QLCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN GA AFTER 15Z AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN
THIS LINE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACKED QLCS TORNADOES AS
WELL GIVEN RAPID STORM MOTIONS.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OUTLINED ABOVE, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF
75+ MPH AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. THE PRIMARY
TIMEFRAME FOR THIS WILL BE BETWEEN 10A AND 3P ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PLEASE HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS QUICKLY,
AND REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN TODAY. STORMS WILL BE
MOVING RAPIDLY - ON THE ORDER OF 55-60 MPH OR FASTER - SO WHEN
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, YOU WILL NEED TO ACT FAST. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WIND
GUSTS OF 40+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PUSH THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MULTIPLE NIGHTS WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD
FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ROBUST CAA IS EXPECTED WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
18Z MONDAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10-12C BEFORE PLUMMETING TO -7C TO
-10C BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD AID IN BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-34F MONDAY NIGHT DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
LOOSENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS STILL BRING A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT ARE ABOVE 60% FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
DUE TO THIS, A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20, THOUGH
BURKE COUNTY GA AND BARNWELL COUNTY SC ARE INCLUDED IN THIS
WATCH AS WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING 24
HOURS TO DETERMINE IF AN EXPANSION TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FA IS
NEEDED.
AFTER THIS, CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS
HIGH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY, THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE LOCATIONS NEAR FREEZING AS WELL. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD,
BRINGING CALM CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AND BRING THE THREAT OF A HARD FREEZE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN FA. DUE TO THIS, CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING FREEZE PRODUCTS
TUESDAY NIGHT IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEES
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NEAR THE REGION, BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING A BIT MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHOULD AID IN
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS
BRINGS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN SEEING ANOTHER SUB-FREEZING NIGHT
ACROSS THE FA WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA, BUT EVEN THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE TOPPING OUT NEAR
40-50%. DUE TO THESE FACTORS, CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FREEZE
CONDITIONS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT FROST PRODUCTS COULD STILL
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME, BUT A BATCH SCT TO BKN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS PUSHING IN FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER COULD SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE CLOUD COVER AROUND 5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO 7-10 KTS. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
STILL SHOW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS BEING POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z,
BUT RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND AWAY FROM THIS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOP OUT AROUND 30-40%.
DUE TO THIS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POSSIBLE
SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
AT ANY ONE TERMINAL BEING LOW, SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE PROB30
GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AFTER 22-01Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BEHIND A LIFTING WARM FRONT, BUT
REMAINING AROUND 6-9 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
MONDAY LIKELY BRINGS RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ018-020>022-025>028-030-035-115-116.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH/PL
AVIATION...DH
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