986
FXUS62 KCAE 152345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT FOR ANY CONDITIONAL SEVERE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH
SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) AND STRONG
TORNADOES (EF2+) POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. A MODERATE RISK (4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR
PART OF THE AREA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK (3/5).
- 2: SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MULTIPLE NIGHTS THIS
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) AND STRONG
TORNADOES (EF2+) AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A
MODERATE RISK (4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR PART OF THE
AREA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5).
THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AREA TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA WITH
AND ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A DYNAMIC AND DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A JET STREAK FURTHER
AMPLIFYING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE A NEGATIVE
TILT TO THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ENHANCING THE
ALREADY STRONG UPPER FORCING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
QLCS LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO GULF COAST BY 12Z WITH A VERY
FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HI-RES SOUNDINGS AT 15Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOW AN
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG, 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OVER 40 KTS WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES, STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND A VEERING
HODOGRAPH WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2S2 AND STP VALUES
AROUND 1. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN QLCS LINE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING AND CROSSING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE LINE FAVORING POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION AND THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS OCCURRING OVER THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE QLCS LINE AND
ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WHERE IF THEY MATERIALIZE WOULD PROVIDE A THREAT OF
STRONG TORNADOES. THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE LINE CROSSING THE
AREA APPEARS TO BE AROUND 10-11AM TO 4-5PM.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE WINDS THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE
STRONG DUE TO A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850MB WINDS 50-60
KNOTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED WHICH COULD RESULT IN NON-
CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS
THE DECISION TO HOLD OFF WAS MADE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ONE BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
NIGHTS THIS WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE OUTLOOK BEHIND MONDAY'S STRONG
FRONT AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WITH
ROBUST CAA DRIVING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-
FREEZING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY
SHOULD DROP NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES AND RAPID COOLING IS
EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD AID IN BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-34F MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE
COMPLICATION OF SURFACE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE FRONT SLOWLY LOOSENING INTO
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT NBM IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS
RUN, THOUGH THE EXPERIMENTAL NBM 5.0 IS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM. RECENT LREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOWS LESS
THAN 32F ARE AROUND 40-60%, HIGHEST NORTH OF I-20 AND THE NBM
REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGE AREA OF PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 60% ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THE GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE
DEE. WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING, THE FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20,
THOUGH BURKE COUNTY GA AND BARNWELL COUNTY SC ARE INCLUDED IN
THIS WATCH AS WELL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE IF A POTENTIAL EXPANSION IS NEEDED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, LIKELY
BRINGING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE FA
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND INTO THE PEE DEE REGION. ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH PROBABILITIES
FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 32F OVER 60-80% FOR THE FA. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD
NEAR FREEZING AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT, THOUGH FROST PRODUCTS AT MINIMUM COULD BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD, THE CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.
VERY DYNAMIC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH
VFR CONDITIONS, BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
GUIDANCE IS BRINGING CEILINGS BACK DOWN INTO MVFR BETWEEN
03Z-06Z AT ALL SITES. HAVE MOSTLY FOLLOWED THAT TREND FOR
CEILINGS, WITH MVFR OR LOWER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. ON TOP OF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS, ADDITIONAL AVIATION THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE CENTERED ON WINDS. FIRST WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
SURFACE WINDS, AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT, THEN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TOP 20 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY TURN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, WIND GUSTS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS A RATHER INTENSE
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THOSE WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WILL TOP 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. EVEN STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH EACH TAF LOCATION, WITH INITIAL
ESTIMATES GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS ALONG THE LINE. IN ADDITION, THE
SQUALL LINE SHOULD BRING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ADJUSTED THE CLOSER
IT GETS ON MONDAY, BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO
GROUP AT EACH TAF LOCATION, WITH TIMING CENTERED AROUND THE
PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. ALL IN ALL, A RATHER
HAZARDOUS FLYING DAY ON TAP FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ018-020>022-025>028-030-035-115-116.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...HC
AVIATION...CAL
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