040
FXUS62 KCAE 160614
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM TUESDAY. A NEW
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AVIATION SECTION UPGRADED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) AND STRONG TORNADOES (EF2+)
POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A
MODERATE RISK (4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR PART OF THE
AREA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5).
- 2: A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-20. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) AND STRONG TORNADOES (EF2+)
POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A MODERATE
RISK (4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR PART OF THE AREA, WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5).
POWERFUL SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST, WITH WARM AND MOISTURE RICH AIR IN PLACE AND
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A LONG LIVED AND INTENSE
QLCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL BEING DRIVEN BY A
ROBUST & DEEP 500 HPA TROUGH, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THERE. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS PER WV IMAGERY, WHICH WILL HELP THIS TROUGH TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SETUP FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY IS ROBUST. A BROAD
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH, FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS PARAMETER SPACES, WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING, IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. RRFS/HRRR SOUNDINGS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS ARE IMPRESSIVE, WITH >1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, >100
J/KG 3KM CAPE, 0-500M SRH 150-200 M2/S2, 35 KNOTS OF 3KM SHEAR,
ETC. ADDITIONALLY, HRRR AND RRFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE QLCS LATER TONIGHT & MERGING WITH THE LINE ITSELF AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA AFTER 9A. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIALLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR QLCS TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF
THIS IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED (LEVEL
3/5) AND MODERATE (LEVEL 4/5) RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES TODAY. PLEASE HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS TODAY
AS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA!
OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORMS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RAMPING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH ALREADY HERE AT CAE. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD FREQUENTLY INCREASE INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME IN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10F-20F
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-20. A FREEZE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE.
THE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN ALABAMA AS OF
WRITING THIS, HALLMARKED BY THE NEARLY 20F TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS IT FROM NE ALABAMA TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS VERY
IMPRESSIVE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON, QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND IT WITH STRONG CAA ON THE ORDER OF 2-6 C/HR PUSHING
IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S TONIGHT WITH SOME NORTHERN SPOTS POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S. WHILE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS DUE TO LESS RESIDENCE TIME UNDER THE STRONG
CAA AND SURFACE WINDS THAT LOOK TO REMAIN A BIT STRONGER FROM
THE DEPARTING FRONT, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE
LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA HAVE PEAKED AROUND 60-80% WITH SIMILAR VALUES IN NBM
GUIDANCE. DUE TO THIS, THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10AM TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL THIS MAY NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FA, BUT WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, HAVE
HELD OFF AT THIS TIME.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXISTS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE IS NOW REACHING 70-90% ACROSS THE WHOLE FA
WHERE THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE COULD DROP TOWARD
26-29F. DUE TO THIS, ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FA, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING IN COMING FORECAST PACKAGES. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN SPOTS SO BE SURE TO TAKE APPROPRIATE MEASURES
FOR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. ONE LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SUB- FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO STAY TUNED FOR ANY
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THAT COULD BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH INCREASING WINDS. STRONG WINDS PERSIST THE WHOLE PERIOD
WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE
WEST.
AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB
MAINLY, BUT OVER THE COMING HOURS, THIS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TOWARD THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD 10-12 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR
20 KTS BEING SEEN. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS LIKELY AFTER
14-16Z AS A ROBUST 40-50 KT LLJ IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME. THESE
WINDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH MAY WEAKEN SOME AFTER 03-06Z TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY UNTIL AROUND 17-20Z, WHEN THE IMPRESSIVE FRONT WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA, QUICKLY TUNING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. IN TERMS OF CEILINGS, MVFR CEILINGS
(POSSIBLY WITH PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
NOW FOR THE ADVERTISED LINE OF CONVECTION. A ROBUST SQUALL LINE
IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DOWN THROUGH WESTERN
ALABAMA AT THIS TIME, AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN, HAVE MADE SLIGHT
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERMINALS IN IMPACTS FROM THIS LINE
(MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES AND VARIABLE/STRONG 40+KT WIND GUSTS).
THE CURRENT PROGRESSION SUGGESTS IMPACTS FROM THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BE SEEN AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-15Z, THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS BETWEEN 14-16Z, AND OGB BETWEEN 16-18Z.
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IF ANY MORE
DISCRETE CONVECTION FORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AFTER THE LINE
CLEARS THE TERMINALS, SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE FULLY CLEARING AFTER 21-00Z
GENERALLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS PERSIST INTO THE NEXT
TAF PERIOD BEFORE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ018-
020>022-025>028-030-035-115-116.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH/PL
AVIATION...DH
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