174
FXUS62 KCAE 161720
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES UPDATED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH ONE LAST AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. RAIN AND GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.
- 2: THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. A FREEZE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE FA WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE FA, WITH THE BACK END OF THE RAIN SHIELD NOW
ENTERING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO WANE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN GEORGIA INDICATE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR FA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES, EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SETTING UP FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. A FREEZE WATCH
IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA
WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED, CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR SOONER. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE CHESTERFIELD, CALHOUN, BAMBERG, AND THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF ORANGEBURG COUNTY. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE WIND REMAINS THE
PRIMARY DETERRENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS
OFTEN LIMIT HOW COLD A LOCATION GETS. FORECAST LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, COLDER IN THE NORMALLY
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND SEE IF
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE MIDLANDS (LEE, SUMTER, CLARENDON,
AND EASTERN ORANGEBURG) NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING
TONIGHT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING, IT IS ADVISED
THAT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS AS A
PRECAUTION TONIGHT EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN
THE FREEZE WARNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, PROMOTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE ENTIRE FA REMAINS IN A FREEZE WATCH TOMORROW
NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. A THIRD NIGHT OF NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THOSE
WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE TODAY FOR SEVERAL
NIGHT OF NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN
BECOMING VFR BY THIS EVENING AFTER A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRECEDES A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA AGS/DNL 19Z-20Z CAE/CUB
20Z-21Z AND OGB 22Z TIME FRAME. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR BY DAWN TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-035-037-041-115-116-135-136.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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