415
FXUS62 KCAE 170119
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
919 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINING IN
EFFECT.
- 2. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. A FREEZE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHEN A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE MIDLANDS AND IS NOW EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. A FREEZE WATCH
IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA
WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST, THE FREEZE WARNING WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHESTERFIELD, CALHOUN, BAMBERG, AND THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF ORANGEBURG COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE WIND
REMAINS THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
GUSTY WINDS OFTEN LIMIT HOW COLD A LOCATION GETS. FORECAST LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, COLDER IN THE
NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND SEE IF THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE MIDLANDS (LEE, SUMTER,
CLARENDON, AND EASTERN ORANGEBURG) NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
WARNING TONIGHT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING, IT IS
ADVISED THAT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT
INDOORS AS A PRECAUTION TONIGHT EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTIES
CURRENTLY IN THE FREEZE WARNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, PROMOTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE ENTIRE FA REMAINS IN A FREEZE WATCH TOMORROW
NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. A THIRD NIGHT OF NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THOSE
WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE TODAY FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS OF NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT HAVE NOW MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS (OR
GREATER) AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-035-037-041-115-116-135-136.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...7/EC
AVIATION...29
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