970
FXUS62 KCAE 170851
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TONIGHT, THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY HARM SENSITIVE VEGETATION
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY HARM SENSITIVE
VEGETATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT
PROMOTING LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY INITIALLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING IS HIGH WITH ROUGHLY 90 PERCENT OF NBM AND
HREF MEMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MOST MEMBERS ARE GROUPED NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING WITH ONLY ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF NBM MEMBERS
BOTTOMING OUT AT 28 OR LOWER. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION OF HOW
WELL THE BIAS CORRECTION IS BEING HANDLED IN THE NBM DURING THIS
TRANSITIONAL SEASON. RAW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM
SHOWS A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION WITH A CLUSTER OF WARMER MEMBERS.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECAY TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECAY WITH ANY GUSTS NOW
FALLING UNDER 25 KTS. A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 08-10Z, THOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
16-18Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AFTER
00Z, BUT FALLING TO UNDER 5 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF PASSING CIRRUS THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-035-037-041-115-116-135-136.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
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