248
FXUS62 KCAE 171027
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY HARM SENSITIVE VEGETATION
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY HARM SENSITIVE
VEGETATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT
PROMOTING LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY INITIALLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING IS HIGH WITH ROUGHLY 90 PERCENT OF NBM AND
HREF MEMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MOST MEMBERS ARE GROUPED NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING WITH ONLY ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF NBM MEMBERS
BOTTOMING OUT AT 28 OR LOWER. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION OF HOW
WELL THE BIAS CORRECTION IS BEING HANDLED IN THE NBM DURING THIS
TRANSITIONAL SEASON. RAW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM
SHOWS A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION WITH A CLUSTER OF WARMER MEMBERS.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN TO 5-8 KTS AS SCT CIRRUS
STREAM INTO THE REGION. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN. AFTER 16-18Z,
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE WHERE ISOLATED NEAR 25 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THESE
GUSTS DECAY AFTER 22-00Z AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE BACK IN NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-035-037-041-115-116-135-136.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page